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Restricted Choice - An evaluation tactic relying on the mathematical probabilities to determine an opponent's holding in a given suit.  Essentially, the Restricted Choice principle states that when a specific opponent's play indicates a choice of equal plays, the other opponent is likely to have a fewer cards in the given suit.

   
K 9 x x

 




 



 
A 10 x x x

 

Normally, declarer plays for the HQ to drop according to the Rule of 9.  However, when cashing the HK, West immediately plays the HQ.  While West could also hold the HJ, a 50% occurrence, playing the HQ from a singleton holding would be a 100% likelihood. 

From a mathematical average, West has a singleton 75% of the time.  According to the principle of restricted choice, Declarer should now finesse East for the HJ.

Card Distribution (remaining two hands)
Hand Distribution (suits within a hand)
High Card Point Count (HCPs in one hand)
Miscellaneous Probabilities (assorted interesting odds)
Number of Cards (card quantity in a suit)
Posteriori Probability (example when additional information is known)
Suit Combinations (best lead and plays)
Expected Controls (based on HCP)

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