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Synopsis: Are you tired
of using the Law of Total Tricks . . . and wondering why there are often one
or two tricks more or less than predicted? This book shows why this is so.
Take the case where there are sixteen trumps. There will be exactly sixteen
tricks only 44% of the time. Without distribution, ten trumps will not
ensure safety at the four level. Would you rather know how many tricks your
side has or how many tricks both sides have in total? Don't waste your time
counting trumps. There are more important things to keep track of. Anders
Wirgren and Mike Lawrence show a method of evaluating your hand that brings
judgment back to bidding and which will result in more accurate bidding.
LAWFUL? --- For years, the LAW has been telling us how the number of trumps
is everything in competitive bidding. We have all heard someone saying that
"We had ten hearts. I had to bid 4H." If 4H turned out to be a good bid,
everyone nodded in agreement because they knew that the LAW had said bidding
4H was a good thing. If 4H turned out to be down 800 against 2S, everyone
agreed that it was a statistical aberration. A sad moment. Eyes might roll a
bit in wonderment that the LAW could be so off base. If you are trying to
follow the LAW, you might be disappointed to learn facts such as this one.
If there are sixteen total trumps between your side and their side, there
will be sixteen tricks way less than you would like. It is not 100% of the
time, it is not 75% of the time, it is not 50% of the time, it is 43% of the
time. Do you want to make competitive bids based on something that is wrong
more often than not?
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